Why I am a climate optimist

We kill it and go on. What happens next?A D&D group, long ago

People are often shocked that I am optimistic about the climate crisis. Sometimes, I’m shocked they’re not. I shouldn’t be, but I am.

Before going further, I should clarify - I am not a climate denier. I believe the climate crisis is the greatest threat human civilization has ever experienced. I believe that we face the risk of gigadeaths - of literally billions of people dying, from famine or resource wars or both, of the complete collapse of global civilization. But I also believe we will probably - hopefully - avoid gigadeaths and civilizational collapse.

So why am I a climate optimist? Here are a few reasons. First, we have the technology already. We don’t need to invent something to get us off of fossil fuels. We don’t need fusion or terraforming Mars or whatever wishful thinking - just renewable energy.

Second, and arguably more importantly, renewable energy has gotten so cheap that’s now cheaper than continuing to burn fossil fuel, even if you don’t consider the climate benefits. It’s now the right thing to do even for simple bottom-line economics. The Invisible Hand is a stronger motivator than all the justice in the world.

Third, the political environment is changing. Today, the world is run by the last dregs of the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, and Generation X - all generations that grew up before climate change was obvious and we were getting pounded by climate-fueled weather disasters. But younger generations (especially those born in the 21st century) have always had it, never lived in a world where it was merely a potential future, where it was something they learned about as adults. And in 20-30 years? Millennials and Zoomers will be in their prime, Boomer gone or nearly so. Kids born today will be in Congress. You think they’ll tolerate climate denial, or choose oil companies over civilization? I don’t.

Fourth - and most important of all, in the long run - the war isn’t over merely by reaching Net Zero. The war won’t be over until the atmosphere is restored to preindustrial CO2 levels. And the technologies we need to do that (without waiting thousands of years for Nature to do it) already exist. I believe it should not take more than a century after Net Zero to completely restore the atmosphere, and it shouldn’t even cost much.

Of course, there are many surprises ahead of us, and most of them will probably be bad. But sometimes, some of them are good! Solar power surprised me about five years ago, when I found out how rapidly prices had been dropping, followed by figuring out that the prices will continue dropping at that rate for a long time yet. That was a great surprise!

But the important thing is that there are solutions to the problems, that the solutions are affordable, and we’re motivated to do them for selfish reasons as well as moral reasons. So, I’m an optimist.